Derby Picks

After much difficult deliberation (First, my blindfolded dart-throwing never hit the board, but did damage the wall. Then I tried the ouija board but it kept spelling out 'I am Barbaro,' then I tried picking the prettiest horses but they all look great, so finally I just guessed) I have settled on my choice.


The new name that will be appearing on Derby glasses everywhere in 2011 is.....(drumroll please).... Awesome Act.
It was a tough choice- not like other years, when it's easy picking Derby winners- but among my 3 or 4 top candidates his increased chances on a sloppy track ended up tipping the scales.

I have not settled on my exotic wager, but I'm thinking I'll probably just stick to some sort of exacta try as being the most affordable.
Others I will definitely include are: Lookin At Lucky, Mission Impazible, Stately Victor, Jackson Bend, and Ice Box.

Oaks Picks

I'll publish my Derby picks tomorrow night. Tonight, the fillies.

I'll go with Ailalea.

If I were betting a $40 ticket, here's what I'd do:

$2 exacta box Ailalea, Blind Luck, It's Tea Time, and Quiet Temper =$24.
$8 win on Ailalea.
and another $8 win on Quiet Temper.

But I will NOT be betting a $40 ticket. I'll probably just bet $2 across on Alalea. I'll be tempted to throw It's Tea Time into some sort of wager, because the $103 payoff on a $1 exacta she helped win me a few weeks ago still leaves me with warm fuzzy feelings. But I'll resist the urge.

Narrowing the Field

I do not believe I'll settle on my favorite until Friday.

I've cut the field in less than half, though, and if Interactif is entered he may be my favorite.
I've eliminated Conveyance, Dublin, Homeboykris, Line of David, Sidney's Candy, Dean's Kitten, American Lion, Stately Victor, Jackson Bend, Backtalk, Noble's Promise, and Paddy O'Prado. And also Mine That Bird. I still don't think he can win.

Kevin's Churchill Downs Picks For Sunday

(Kevin's Picks will now be a regular feature of this site, appearing every Sunday morning that Kevin happens to be home, awake, moderately bored but unwilling to do anything productive, doesn't feel like watching anything, and has just finished a really good book but has not yet started another.)

Race 1) #1 Geste, 9/5 #3 Harmonizer 3/1
Race 2) #6 Extreme Warrior 5/2
Race 3) #6 Safe Trip 3/1
Race 4) #5 Purrfect Alibi 3/1
Race 5) #3 Five Plus Five 3/1
Race 6) #3 All West, 20/1 #8 Mr Realistic 5/2
Race 7) #6 Glenwood Canyon 5/1
Race 8) #9 Bravo Whiskey, 4/1 #8 Cherokee Speed 3/1
Race 9) #2 Brezing Rain 5/1
Race 10) #8 Libel and Slander 7/2



Today's Guarantee: It's your funeral.

Late night update: two winners, two scratches. Eight $2 win bets ($16) would have returned $14.80. Boo.

Visit Kevin's Blog For These Up-to-the-Minute Derby Headlines

Expert Derby Handicapper

I spent a few minutes this evening looking at Derby horses. I also opened my file folder titled "2009derbyhandicapping."
It was a neat little spreadsheet I devised to handicap the race; I wrote a comment or two about each horse, and used multiple columns to forecast positions at each quarter to help determine a race scenario.
It was brilliant. Especially my comment about the eventual winner, Mine That Bird:

"No freaking way. Not even in any other race on Derby Day."

Still, I used the same method in 2008 and picked Big Brown, so I guess I'll try to make it 2 out of 3 this year.

(And yes, it did actually say 'freaking.' Though a different word may have crossed my mind after the race.)

Also, the 2010 Derby winner is shown in one of the five photographs at the top. Probably. I just don't know which one it is.

Two Annoying Topics of Vastly Different Importance, Neither of Which I Can Do Anything About

except complain.

1) Motorists
a) Does anyone anywhere know the difference between a solid white line and a dotted white line, or what the difference means? I do, but I apparently am among the few, because I see plenty of folks crossing those solid white lines to change lanes every day, especially on S. Hurstbourne, on Dutchmans Lane, and Blankenbaker just off I-64.
b) Even more frustrating is the number of people at the Taylorsville Rd/Bardstown Rd intersection who do not know what the big 'NO LEFT TURN' sign means. That one shouldn't be tricky to figure out at all.

2) I was listening to a discussion on NPR today about estate taxes. This topic always annoys me because I generally agree with both sides. It's one of those problems that I believe will never have an adequate solution, and that bugs me.
a) I completely disagree with the term 'death tax.' The dead person isn't being taxed. They are dead. The person getting the inheritance is being taxed. They are not dead. So it's not a death tax.
b) But I do see plenty of value in being able to leave an inheritance, and I see what a bummer it is (or will be, if the estate tax is resumed) to see the government take such a huge chunk of that inheritance. And I recognize the problem of being assessed a real amount of cash tax on an inheritance that can be largely theoretical or tied up in a business that loses its value if liquidated to pay the tax.
c) But I am strongly opposed to vast amounts of inherited wealth. I'm anti-oligarchy and anti-royalty, whether real or de facto. It's un-American (in theory, but definitely not in practice).

The perfect solution would be a society with no estate tax but in which vast wealth was voluntarily and happily bequeathed to worthy charities rather than worthless Paris Hiltons, but that just isn't going to happen. So I think estate taxes are currently the best rotten solution.

Show Betting

To stick with today's Derby theme (two weeks!), I did some show betting today, just to see how it would work out.

I usually do okay betting horses. When I'm losing it's a sustainable amount that doesn't exceed the entertainment value I'm getting out of it, and sometimes I even win.

But Derby Day is the constant exception to the rule. I lose a lot every Derby. I lose because I bet every stinking race just because it seems like the thing to do that day.
The rest of the year I look at a few races every now and then, and if I find something I like I bet it. If I find nothing I like, I stay away. It works out much better. (makes me a better bettor. ha ha)
In fact, a couple of weeks ago I pulled up my on-line betting history for the last year. Factoring in my at-track bets, I'm about $200 ahead for the 12-month period.
But it would be $500 if it wasn't for the few days I bet almost every race on a track's card (Derby Day and trips to the track)- on those days I'm about $300 behind.

So I'm considering all show bets this Derby day to stay conservative and still have a rooting interest.
Thinking about that this morning, I decided to make a few show wagers today.

I came out slightly ahead, but I would have been slightly more ahead if they'd all been win wagers. Still, it seems like a decent way to minimize the danger and still have a rooting interest in every race Derby day.

Next time I go to the track I think I might even try to talk whoever I'm with into pooling a couple dollars each for a show parlay. It seems like it could be fun.

Top 10 Sounds Like A Derby Winner, But Is Something Else Entirely

Fleetwood Mac (Jockey Stevie Nicks)
Deliverance (owned by Jon Voight)
Waylon Jennings (bred in Luckenback, TX)
Omar Sharif (owned by Lawrence of Arabia)
Evita (bred in Argentina)
Barack Obama (darn. I've got nothing for this)
Wells Fargo (coming up blank here, too)
Candide (sired by Voltaire)
Sergeant York (trained by Walter Brennan)
Cinnabon (Pillsbury Farm)

Something I Learned Today, Episode III (The Windy Menace)

Today's "Something I Learned Today" was inspired by "Science Friday," which featured an interesting discussion about tornadoes.

They mentioned the Tri-State Tornado of March 18,1925. I read more this evening.


The deadliest tornado in U.S. history, it traveled somewhere in the range of 200-230 miles (estimates vary)through Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.

Also, I think The Tri-State Tornado would be a great name for a wrestler.

I can't understand why the Indianapolis Star had to apologize for putting horns and a beard on Coach K, especially in blue ink. He coaches the Blue Devils. Why would he be upset to be drawn as a Blue Devil? What's the big deal? Plus, he does look a lot like the mascot anyway.

Oh, and yes, the poem below is a palindrome. I was impressed, though I guess no one else was. I've tried to create some palindromes in the past and I can't get anything longer than 5 or 6 words.

I have used two or three Demetri Martin quotes atop this page. Looking at a few others I came across this poem he wrote. Anyone notice anything special about it?

"Dammit I'm Mad"


Dammit I’m mad.
Evil is a deed as I live.
God, am I reviled? I rise, my bed on a sun, I melt.
To be not one man emanating is sad. I piss.
Alas, it is so late. Who stops to help?
Man, it is hot. I’m in it. I tell.
I am not a devil. I level “Mad Dog”.
Ah, say burning is, as a deified gulp,
In my halo of a mired rum tin.
I erase many men. Oh, to be man, a sin.
Is evil in a clam? In a trap?
No. It is open. On it I was stuck.
Rats peed on hope. Elsewhere dips a web.
Be still if I fill its ebb.
Ew, a spider… eh?
We sleep. Oh no!
Deep, stark cuts saw it in one position.
Part animal, can I live? Sin is a name.
Both, one… my names are in it.
Murder? I’m a fool.
A hymn I plug, deified as a sign in ruby ash,
A Goddam level I lived at.
On mail let it in. I’m it.
Oh, sit in ample hot spots. Oh wet!
A loss it is alas (sip). I’d assign it a name.
Name not one bottle minus an ode by me:
“Sir, I deliver. I’m a dog”
Evil is a deed as I live.
Dammit I’m mad.

Hint: if you haven't figured it out yet, perhaps you should look at it again, but this time start from this end.

100% Guaranteed Sporting Predictions*

A big day in basketball and horse racing, so here are my picks.


1) Butler over Michigan State. This is really a shot in the dark. These are two very evenly-matched teams and I expect a close game. So close that I wrote "Butler over Michigan State, deleted and reversed it, and then deleted and reversed it again. I am that confident.
2) Duke over West Virginia. The 1-3-1 will not work against Duke. 1-3-1 zones in general are just lousy. It might work sometimes, but usually only because the defenders are better than their opponents, in which case man-to-man and 2-3 also work, so it doesn't matter what style the defense chooses. Or they work against teams like Kentucky that don't pass crisply in their half-court offense and don't shoot well. Neither is a fault of Duke's.

3) Wood Memorial: Eskendereya is my likely winner. No value there, but his 3/5 win ticket will pay more than the losers- one of which will probably be me, because I'll try to beat him with Awesome Act.

4) Illinois Derby: Yawanna Twist is my tepid favorite.

5) Santa Anita Derby: I like Alphie's Bet, again tepidly. I think I'll do a 4-horse exacta box in this one with Alphie's Bet, Setsuko, Lookin At Lucky, and Caracortado.

*Guarantee void if predictions incorrect
_________________________________________
6:15 pm Saturday update:
I really should have published my Ashland Stakes picks. Thanks to Evening Jewel and It's Tea Time my exacta wager paid handsomely. I also neglected to change my blog picks on the Santa Anita Derby. But when I bet I threw out Caracortado and added Sidney's Candy in my exacta. That worked out okay, too.

Three Dumb Things

1)Rep. Hank Johnson of Georgia certainly gives me confidence that our government can solve the big issues of the day. I am glad he has a full grasp of the issues at hand. I just watched the video of his comments about the possibility of Guam capsizing. The only two words I can think of to describe it are 'painfully stupid.' It really hurt to watch someone say something so dumb. And with his illness and slowed speech the build-up to the ignorance kind of reminded me of "The Office."

2)I say 'Good morning' at least a dozen times per day. It's well-established as an customary greeting, and as far as I know "Good morning" as a salutation is intended to mean the greeter wishes the receiver of the greeting to have a good morning. It is not an observation. It does not mean "This certainly is a nice morning, isn't it?"
But every day at least one very unclever person says "Yeah, right. What's so good about it?" or something along those lines.
Someday I'm going to respond "Well f you, too."

3)The economist on "The Diane Rehm Show" today said "Credit is literally our lifeblood."
After 13 hours it still bothers me. Blood is literally our life's blood.
It literally drives me up a wall when people say that.
(Hey, it's dusty up here. I never noticed that from down on the floor.)

Bonus Dumb Thing Number 4: I nominate myself for not being able to figure out how to keep my text together. I fiddled with it a while but the first two words of each of the first two paragraphs are still separated by the pictures.