I switched horses. Again. My Derby favorites this year have been plentiful, even though my top choices haven't really been getting beat. I've gone from Mucho Macho Man to Dialed In to Archarcharch to Dialed In again to Archarcharch again to Stay Thirsty to.... Soldat.
If you're looking for a winner, I'd advise either Mucho Macho Man or Dialed In. The reason is simple; I put a $2 win bet on the each of the other 3 horses I've liked, but not Mucho Macho Man and Dialed In. So one of them will probably win.
I didn't like seeing Uncle Mo scratched because I've never been impressed with that horse. I wanted him in the race at about 5 to 1, driving up the odds on whoever I liked.
I finally settled on Soldat for my traditional $2 WPS wager on my official, braggers' rights Derby bet because he's one of the few who's been consistently excellent (minus FL), because he'll be up front and likely out of traffic and probably not have a breakneck pace, and because he appears set to go off at odds in the neighborhood of 20-1. That's good odds for a horse when the best he's shown so far is at least as good as or better than all the others.
In what is becoming a Derby Eve tradition, I made Derby bets, including exacta and trifecta, and bets on the first 4 races since I have to work for a while tomorrow. Rotten timing for our busiest time of year.
In what is becoming a Derby Day tradition, I'll bring my racing form and program to work to check out races 5, 6, and 7, so I should be very productive.
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