Monday, March 28, 2011

Inspired By Leonard's Losers


The Final Four for the Anti-National Championship is now set. Only one team can be the anti-national champion. Only one team can ultimately be the first in a chain of losses all the way to the title game.
Lots of teams (32, to be exact) lose in the round of 64. At that point all 32 still have dreams of becoming the anti-national champion. But sixteen of those teams are eliminated the opening weekend, as the team that beat them wins another game. For the other sixteen, the ones whose conquerors are immediately conquered in turn, the dream stays alive.
It's a longshot for even the worst of tournament teams. To lose to a team that then loses to a team that then loses to another, which then loses in the elite eight to a team that loses in the semi-finals to a team which loses in the national championship... well, it can only be done by one team.

But now we are down to four. And WHAT A FOUR they are. Who could have predicted that not a single 11 seed (the most likely, statistically) would remain. The 11 seeds have the easy path to reach the Anti-Final Four- all they have to do is lose to a 6, who loses to a 3, who loses to a 2, who loses to a 1. No upsets required.
But one by one, the 11's slipped up and refused to go down in flames. Marquette and Gonzaga bowed out of the anti-tournament early, winning convincingly in the first round. VCU, who was perhaps the favorite to win the anti-tournament, not only didn't lose in the first round, they also didn't lose in the next round, or the sweet sixteen. Then they even didn't lose in the regional finals.
That left Missouri alone among the 11's; they alone stood up tall to be knocked down by Cincinnati in the first round. They still looked appropriately weak as Cincy fell to UConn. But their dreams were dashed as UConn refused to fall to San Diego State, leaving the anti-tournamet wide open.

So who remains?
* Indiana State would seem, at first glance, to be the favorite. They fell handily to Syracuse, who immediately lost to that stubborn refuse-to-be-a-loser Marquette, who then finally fell flat on their face against North Carolina, who promptly lost to Kentucky.
The Sycamores have a solid shot at losing it all. However, they must hope that the suddenly red-hot Kentucky Wildcats cool off enough to lose to UConn, who most in turn lose to either Butler or the seriously under-overachieving (over-underachieving?) Virginia Commonwealth.

*The unmighty Tennessee Vols still have a legitimate shot. They seemed poised for an early exit from the anti-tournament, but their program fell into disarray at just the right time, losing to Michigan, who lost to Duke, who scored a spectacular failure against Arizona, who then fell against the UConn Huskies. But for the Vols to lose it all the path runs through Kentucky and then either Butler or VCU.

*The St. John's Red Storm failed impressively in the opening round, routed by Gonzaga. They then took advantage of their position, which was in effect the taking over of Gonzaga's original 11 seed, as the Zags lost to 3 BYU who lost to 2 Florida, who then pulled off the anti-upset by losing to 8 seed Butler, securing St. John's a place in the unvaunted anti four.
From here the Red Storm's path is bright, as all they need is a Butler loss to a hot VCU squad, and then a VCU loss to either of the top remaining seeds, UConn or Kentucky.

*Finally, we have perhaps the most unlikey contender for ultimate loser, the Louisville Cardinals. Unlikely, but convincing. The Cards scored an upset flame-out against lowly Morehead State, who then fell in a route to the Richmond Spiders, who were then destroyed by Kansas. Kansas then came through with a meltdown of massive proportions against VCU.
Now all that stands in the Cards' way is the possibility of VCU knocking off Butler, or of Butler winning two more times.
It can certainly happen, but the Ville (note: that is local vernacular for a school in the city of Louisville whose players are unaware that more than one town name ends in the letters v-i-l-l-e) is now a prohibitive favorite.

Go Cards! If they lose I think we should get Rick a trophy.

1 comment:

Bad Bob said...

Jeez! That sounds as confusing as "Memento", which I watched last night. You'll have to explain that movie to me.