UK/UofL Pick

I have a lot to live up to this year. My picks last season were right on the money except for the Tennessee game, and if I remember correctly I gave a large number of caveats for that one and basically said it was a toss-up, and only picked UK because I hate the Vols with a blinding passion that clouded my judgement.
Then I went on to win my office bowl pick 'em, so I now consider myself a professional pigskin prognosticator.
(Aside: I just ran a quick spellcheck for the post to this point, and Google says nothing is spelled incorrectly. Why did it not flag "'em"?)

Here comes my first stab at the 2010 Wildcats:

Louisville is not good. Charlie Strong may or may not be a good head coach. There is simply no way of knowing. His recruiting has started out well, but he's playing this game with Kragthorpe's players.
Kentucky is okay. Joker Phillips may or may not be.... and so on (see above and exchange Kragthorpe with Brooks).

So I have no choice but to ignore all the unknowns- which is a lot- and go with what I know. Kentucky at this point has better players, and Kentucky's players are familiar with their system. Louisville has less talent and less familiarity with their system.
Kentucky should thus make fewer mistakes, and they should also make more big positive plays. I don't see much great offense coming from either side, but Kentucky will scratch out an ugly season-opening win.

Kentucky 33, Louisville 17. Comfortable, but not pretty.