Election

My prediction below was based mostly on state-by-state polls.

There are numerous states in which the polling preference is currently Clinton first, then McCain, then Obama.

This could be a reflection of preference for the candidates’ platforms, but that makes no sense since Clinton and Obama’s platforms are virtually indistinguishable. If policy was the reason for the polling rank in these states, McCain would always be first or last.

I also have a hard time believing the polls reflect any personality preferences. Clinton might be a fine person, but if the choices are McCain, Clinton, and Obama, I can’t believe Hillary Clinton is the one more people would “like to have a beer with.”

So I’ve concluded that these polls reflect two things.

The first is racism. A small percentage of people who are sick of Bush policies and right-wing government would still not be willing to vote for a black candidate, especially since that candidate has both Islam and a weirdo Christian minister in his past. Never mind the fact that he’s not the only candidate with a whacko Christian minister in his corner.

But I think the polls also suggest some bitterness from Clinton supporters. The polling of people who prefer Obama indicates that they would vote for Clinton of she’s the candidate, but the percentage of Clinton supporters who would do the same is noticeably smaller.

My guess is that a lot of Clinton supporters feel that it is her turn, and they would have had no problem supporting Obama in 20012 or 2016 if he’d waited until then to run. Now that he’s the choice of the party, they’re having some difficulty accepting it.

This leads me to believe that Obama will have a larger-than-average bounce coming out of the Democratic Convention. The bitter feelings will persist for a while, but once Clinton takes the stage at the convention and gives a glowing endorsement of Obama as the champion of the party, a lot of her supporters will find they can support him after all.

So let’s just hope he doesn’t get shot. There is an astounding quantity of ignorant, in-bred, gun-toting lunatics in this country, and since a prominent and supposedly good, sane minister is already making jokes about it, I think assassination might be a legitimate fear.